Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
